No Surprises: Trump's First 100 Days Follow His Campaign Blueprint

The last 100 days of the administration is more likely to matter though, when his actions have fully materialized

One hundred days. 

Whether your perspective is that President Trump has dragged our country into a chaotic morass or driving much-needed, lightning-speed change to our political system that’s it — it’s just been 100 days.

During the last campaign, President Trump was fairly clear about what he intended to do: 

• President Trump promised the largest mass-deportation in our country's history. He’s well on his way – in a fashion that concerns me, which I wrote about last week. 

• He promised substantial tariffs on foreign goods, and while it’s not clear exactly how it will shake out, he certainly did deliver, at least temporarily. 

• He promised to close the Department of Education and other government initiatives — and has pretty much stripped many of our federal government agencies, some more swiftly than others. 

He's certainly effective at staying on message and portraying action. He’s an entertainer after all; he keeps the spotlight, eats up oxygen, and makes people believe he can change all the world’s problems in a blink of an eye.  

Unlike other Presidents though, the first 100 days are hardly the time to judge President Trump. 

In fact, it was the last 100 days of President Trump’s first term that were far more memorable and significant. And this time like last time, some of the actions he’s taken will take more time to be fully judged.

Always on Message

It's impressive, in a way, how President Trump stays on message. 

I listen to him a lot on C-SPAN and other direct sources, rather than watching analysis of him. If you listen closely, he says the exact same things over and over. On Ukraine: "Obama gave them blankets, I gave them Javelins." He'll often add "They say" or "The saying goes," and frequently refer to himself in the third person. He’ll lambast Biden as the worst President in U.S history and continue his sleepy Joe insults. 

As we’ve seen, he'll double and triple down, even on claims that lack factual evidence, as was the case in the campaign when he suggested immigrants in Ohio were eating pets. (I've received messages from those who believe they have evidence, but I haven't seen a direct connection; and as a pet lover, I certainly hope no one in this country eats cats and dogs. Though, it’s another important moment to remind you again that Trump’s own Secretary of Homeland Security, Kristi Noem, shot her dog Cricket at 1 year of age.)

President Trump also pivots every question to what he wants to answer.

Will he finally bring about peace in Ukraine? President Putin may not want peace, he says.  But Trump he’s for peace, peace through strength.  Ok.  Yeah on Putin not wanting peace — that maybe should have been clear as he invaded his neighbor.

President Trump has also trained his team to stay on message. White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt has been in the White House briefing room two days in a row at 8:30 to directly lay out the President’s agenda, first on immigration and then on the economy.  She takes questions including those from sympathetic “journalists” she’s filled the room with, some of which suggest the administration go further, like one who asked a long question on immigration and suggested suspending habeas corpus.

If you’re getting your news entirely from this administration, it’s likely rosy. This has been an impactful, fast-twitch, all win first 100 days. 

If not, it might be more nuanced.  Polls suggest a precipitous drop in support for President Trump — a slightly faster decline than his last term — and that’s with a turbulent economy and a possible recession on the horizon. It’s possible many didn't read the fine print of what they were signing up for when they voted for him, they thought he was the lesser of two evils or that he wouldn’t go this far.  

But there are plenty of people I know who supported Trump before and still 100% back his actions. The consequences of those actions, though, will take longer to feel, and when they’re felt they will be louder than words. 

Manufacturing and Tariffs

As I’ve written, I’m frustrated with Democrats who are re-running a resistance playbook. 

Waving around signs like "Tariffs won't work," without suggesting an alternative doesn’t really help. Neither does ignoring the sentiment Trump tapped into, around bringing critical manufacturing back to the U.S. 

And those saying we can’t promise America will be back, I disagree 100%.  Democrats actually already worked towards bringing manufacturing jobs back — the CHIPS Act was passed to bring back critical semiconductor chip manufacturing.  But saying tariffs won’t ever work?  It’s also hard to explain away President Biden keeping President Trump's tariffs on China.

With that said, President Trump's tariffs have been poorly communicated and were a bit of a whack-a-mole at first, with numbers that appeared not reciprocal but based on a trade deficit and other factors. And while he initially said he wouldn't budge with a laundry list of specific rates, after a week of falling markets and a weakening dollar, he backtracked. For now.

He's telling his voters now that tariffs could replace federal taxes in America, and that the collection of tariffs is netting America $2 billion a day. Most economists say this is a far-fetched notion and the actual number so far has been closer to $200 million a day. The federal government spends more than $6 trillion a year. Even if you were making $2 billion a day, that’s $730 billion a year.  The math of that promise, like so many, doesn't add up.

One thing that is already happening: Because of the changing tariffs and supply chain disruptions, companies are finding it difficult to plan, and are shrinking expectations. 

That, along with the market tumble, gave even Republicans reason to fear the effects. The impact of the tariffs, what will and won't take shape over these next couple of years, is much more likely to be felt in months and years to come.

Judgment Day

So far, what we’ve seen is that President Trump’s actions match what he says — at least at the high-level. There are Democrats wishing that their action had been as swift, expanding medicaid for all, ensuring paid family leave, and headstart expansions, regardless of opposition.  

But swift actions can have unintended consequences, and what will be most telling is if the actions he’s taking achieve anywhere near the results he’s promised. 

Already there’s signs of doubt.  While President Trump took on inflation and the high price of goods, prices with tariffs are set to increase.  Will America stomach the transition?  Can they?  

He has promised to end the war in Ukraine — and taken some actions to try and drive a resolution — but it is a longstanding conflict and it’s not at all clear his approach will work.  He’s promised to be a peace-time President, but sometimes you don’t get what you want.  

He has enforced the strictest border policies in recent history — but in looking at history, the problems of the world don't end when you build a wall on your border. And when problems grow elsewhere, eventually they tend to be felt everywhere.

To fairly analyze the first 100 days of the Trump administration, he certainly has a more coordinated team, he has fulfilled most of what he said he would, or tried to force issues through executive action. And honestly, Democrats didn't underestimate that during the campaign. They warned against it. 

The question is: Will the majority of us find ourselves in the last 100 days of Donald Trump's term happy with the outcomes? That's a question that's much farther off (there are 1361 days remaining of this term), but one voters will ultimately use to judge this presidency.