Around the time I got my start in Kansas politics, a book came out called, “What’s the Matter with Kansas?” It argued that Democrats should be thriving in the state, and the only reason they weren’t amounted to people not voting in their self interests.
That frame always irritated me. I found it pretty arrogant and counterproductive.
As a Democrat who spent big chunks of my life in Kansas (born in Wichita, back for college, and a member of a pro-choice female Democratic governor’s administration), I tried not to assume I knew someone’s interests better than they did. Also, I tend to believe people only change their minds when they feel heard.
One week out from the midterm elections, I found myself back in Kansas for a family funeral in Wichita to celebrate an aunt whose life had a huge impact, and I got to visit with all sorts of people with different views.
What I am learning is that perspectives may in fact be shifting and now a conservative state, once at the center of Democratic ridicule, is proving to be one of the most important, if improbable, pickup opportunities for Democrats in a race to control the Senate.
The state’s political dynamics, which have generally skewed conservative, appear to be shifting, and it’s making for a fascinating case study in a midterm election that seems to be very much a state-by-state contest, even as it plays out on a national stage.
An Improbable Senate Battleground
In Kansas, Democrats have a preacherman on the ballot. And not just any preacherman. Rev. Adam Hamilton is the founder of a megachurch that boasts more than 22,000 congregants.
His church, United Methodist Church of the Resurrection in the Kansas City area, is literally the largest United Methodist church in the United States. A lot has been made of James Talarico’s faith in Texas but in Kansas, I feel like not enough has been written about a faith leader who could be Kansas’ next Senator. He has written more than 30 books on his faith, and faith is his major motivation to get in this race.
This Senate election is his first foray into politics. He was previously registered as a Republican, reportedly weighed a run as an independent, and is locked in a margin-of-error race with a deeply unpopular incumbent, GOP Sen. Roger Marshall.
Being on the ground in Wichita, I’ve long wondered when there would be a shift. This is a midsize city with generally conservative and modest values. It’s a place where religion often comes up and people talk a lot about their faith.
President Trump, as we know, likes to wrap himself in faith but it’s often in conflict with his behaviors. He’s talking about his faith while also living a playboy lifestyle. He’s talking about his faith while enacting fiercely anti-immigrant policies. He’s talking about his faith as a man in his third marriage, with a litany of publicly known dalliances and affairs.
In this vacuum, Hamilton, a man of deep faith, is stepping forward and has been calling Trump out, at a time where Trump policies haven’t delivered for the state. Inflation and tariffs are hitting here as much as anywhere else and polls show that many voters are associating Marshall with Trump’s policies.
Marshall, for his part, is not particularly charismatic (sort of the opposite of preacherman energy). One family member recounted how Marshall couldn’t even get people to talk to him at a ballgame. Marshall’s best and most frequent argument to voters is that they can’t give Chuck Schumer power.
I hate to tell him, but Adam Hamilton is clearly no Chuck Schumer. And many on the ground here in Kansas say a truly competitive race has been building.
A long time coming
Ashley All has been working in Democratic politics in this state for more than 20 years. We know each other back from when I worked with Gov. Kathleen Sebelius, at the beginning of my career. Ashley now serves as the President for Kansas Coalition for Common Sense.
A lot of people don’t see the groundwork that has been laid here, Ashley tells me. She worked on the 2018 race that brought Laura Kelly, a Democratic Governor to power, and the 2022 vote to protect abortion rights. Both were campaigns run on shared interests. And she sees a direct line from 2018 to 2022 to now. Kansas is being underestimated nationally, she believes. It’s also been the accomplishment of a lot of grassroots organizing and not a lot of national money.
Which means a lot of the Democratic success is uneven. In some of the same polls that have Adam Hamilton, the Senate candidate, running ahead of the Republican incumbent, the Democratic nominee for Governor is trailing.
In that race, two Kansas state senators are running against each other. Ty Masterson, who has been in Kansas politics for nearly two decades from the Wichita area and previously declared bankruptcy in the construction business, versus Cindy Holscher, who previously worked for Sprint in the Kansas City area and has been in elected office since 2017.
The race might be tight for other reasons. Holscher wasn’t the incumbent Governor’s original choice (although Kelly has now endorsed her). My more conservative family members tell me she has struggled to find a more centrist approach that appeals to a broad majority of the state. But some polls are within a margin of error so anything is possible.
A Split Ticket
A week out from Midterms, even as I can see the appeal of a Democratic newcomer like Hamilton, I worry we could be overconfident nationally. I keep hearing the national news media talk about the potential of a blue wave.
During the Obama campaign, Paul Tewes, the Iowa State Director beat it into us: Polls don’t vote, people do. And it’s clear many are still on the fence. Even in a culture that is quite braggadocious and loud, many voters are quiet on their views.
My father-in-law recently completed a cross-country trip, his second over the last few years. The last time he did it was also in an election year and he told me that he just doesn’t see the political signs he saw last time. People aren’t showing their allegiance on their sleeve, the ballot box is a quiet place of reflection, and yes, this last week matters.
Ashley knows this all too well. In a state that has been red for most of our lives, she believes she has to run like she’s losing until it changes.
But there are reasons to be cautiously optimistic, she tells me (while doing the last hard work of the last week). Ashley is inherently skeptical but even she was moved when she went to see Adam Hamilton speak. He’s building from his own organizing and state organizing. And he’s drawing crowds. She told me about the large crowd he drew in Salina, Kansas just recently.
Salina, suffice it to say, is normally not Democratic territory.
Is it any coincidence then that Ashley tells me President Trump just announced a Saturday rally in the state. Guess where? Salina.
It's all going to come down to who turns out. Trump must know that when he's trying to get his people out in Salina.
*Apologies to those who normally listen to me read my post. Traveling today (solo with the 5+ month old) and sending from the road. There should be a listen button, just not my recording this week. So grateful for all of you; please send me your thoughts from where you are this midterm election.