Is Marjorie Taylor Greene the canary in the coal mine?
Slowly but surely we’re seeing a MAGA breakup. Presumed loyalists to President Trump are sliding away. It may not feel that way yet, but with a spat over the release of Epstein files, Trump has added Greene to a growing exodus.
In fact, the group of MAGA apostates has grown so large it could field its own political convention, complete with keynote speakers who once pledged undying loyalty. Elon Musk is, of course, the headliner and the most explosive breakup when he took to X and said (before deleting it) that the President would appear in the Epstein files.
Thanks to Rep. Ro Khanna, Democrats, and a small coalition of Republicans that included both Rep. Thomas Massie and women who have traditionally been Donald Trump supporters (Reps. Lauren Boebert, Nancy Mace and Greene), the House has now overwhelmingly voted to release the Epstein files. Even before that vote, they found some emails Musk might have been referring to, causing more speculation.
I’ve said before and I’ll say it again: I get frustrated by the focus on the Epstein files, because I know what’s not going to be in them. Healthcare for all Americans.
Americans are still waiting for that healthcare plan Trump promised eight years ago, or for much needed improvements on Obamacare. I fear we are again getting distracted. (Supposedly, President Trump agrees with me about it being a distraction, which is why he says he wants to avoid the topic, though I’m not sure given his proximity to the situation that it’s the real reason.)
Either way, depending on who you’re listening to, these files are either going to take the entirety of the Clinton orbit down (we’ve heard that before), or they’re going to end President Trump’s presidency.
I suspect it’s neither.
Will this take President Trump down?
Every time another revelation surfaces, I get some version of this question: Will this bring President Trump down? This time?
That question is not coming from any of my MAGA friends. It’s not coming from his loyal supporters. But it seems there’s still hope from the left that President Trump will be held accountable for the vast number of things he’s said or done that cross the ethical line. I would think the bitcoin trading, inside dealing, fundraising for his library via lawsuits, or taking an Air Force One from a foreign government (among many other things) would have consequences. But none of these did. And beyond eroding MAGA support, I think the emails will be exactly the same.
What Americans care about is still simple: Is their life getting better? If the answer is no, that’s what takes any leader down.
What we could see, though, is an erosion of trust within MAGA itself.
President Trump himself drew attention to the Epstein files. He was, to borrow a political phrase, for them before he was against them. Opposing their release more recently is curious, and gives a permission structure for MAGA friendlies (with Greene the latest example) to find their own voices.
This could get interesting because when I talk to MAGA friends, I can find agreement on a desire to invest in America: in education, in health, in jobs. And if leaders could think for themselves, instead of for their parties, I still believe there’s far more they could get done.
Leadership standing in the way
There have been questions of late about Democratic leadership, particularly after the government shutdown. But I think the question is still whether the House has the right leadership in Speaker Johnson.
Remember what got House Speaker Mike Johnson this job? After Kevin McCarthy was deposed, Republicans found themselves vote after vote unable to consolidate. They finally settled on a little-known Congressman few had really heard of, after days of battling one another.
While Mike Johnson is certainly still on the President’s good side as of today, how he navigates the aftermath of the Epstein vote will be telling.
One thing few seem focused on: Johnson is an ineffective leader.
President Trump has a trifecta, with Republican control of the House and Senate (and a sympathetic Supreme Court). Yet Johnson hasn’t gotten much done. He can’t point to major legislation passed under President Trump.
So far, he’s also lost seats, not gained them. He even sent his party home for the entirety of the government shutdown to avoid swearing in newly elected Democrat Adelita Grijalva from Arizona, which would cause him to face the Epstein fight.
Like it or not, the Epstein fight is here.
What’s happening with Marjorie Taylor Greene?
Her evolution from Trump cheerleader to occasional dissenter reveals something fascinating: even the most loyal soldiers eventually realize they have their own political futures to protect. She first stood up to President Trump on military action in Iran. Similarly, Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul continues to ask questions about the President’s actions around Venezuela and the supposed fight against the drug war.
Congressional leaders are most likely to save themselves when they need to, versus protecting a lame duck President.
And we might have entered that phase. A lame duck President who believes he has more foot soldiers willing to do his work, when they’ve actually slowly entered the next phase, fighting for their own influence.
I was asked recently who I think will come into leadership in MAGA. That’s a tough question.
I don’t see JD Vance having the power, stage presence or gravitas that President Trump has created. Remember, people know President Trump from his reality show, trust him because of his business (whether the success of that was in doubt or not), and believe in him. Vance would have lost in Ohio without the President’s endorsement.
Though Vance’s loyalty to the President is not currently in question, his ability to take over the mantle very much is.
So what I foresee is a fight to be the standard-bearer of the MAGA movement. And open questions: What ideas will be successful? Is this a movement that can actually be transferred from President Trump to someone else?
Somehow, the Epstein files are at the center of this. But the real question isn’t whether they will take Trump down.
It’s whether his former allies will finally find the courage to build something up.
